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Prediction markets for MOR

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

184826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

9421

Will Netflix's brick and mortar stores fail by end of 2026?

Dec 22, 2:59 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.52%chance

172833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3083

82

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.66%chance

351469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

978

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

35.04%chance

8968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2579

1361

Who wrote the pink letter?

Sep 10, 12:57 PMJan 1, 1:57 PM

11806

OptionProbability

Ramsay Bolton

Mance Rayder

Melisandre

Asha Greyjoy

Theon Greyjoy

Mors Umber

Other

Stannis Baratheon

Barbrey Dustin

Wyman Manderly

47

25

5

5

5

5

4

1

1

1

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.21%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

989

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.67%chance

25505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

929

Will there be a Book of Mormon movie or series based off the Broadway Musical before EOY 2029?

Mar 11, 5:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.81%chance

16288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

944

Rick and Morty: will Justin Roiland ever be an official voice actor again?

Apr 8, 9:44 PMApr 14, 9:59 PM

30.79%chance

13274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

951

Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?

Jul 1, 5:47 AMJun 30, 4:00 PM

52.06%chance

7204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

960

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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