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Prediction markets for Morriña Festival

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Mar 28, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

10728934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4039

1127

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.08%chance

348649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10538

1545

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.72%chance

443248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1693

188

Will Fyre Festival 2 actually happen before the end of 2025?

May 2, 6:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.82%chance

152328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

444

23

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

162204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2981

1492

Chinese military parade on September 3, 2025, features marching humanoid robots

Jul 25, 5:57 PMSep 4, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

151064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

N.C. Young's 🤷🏻‍♂️ Relatively Dumb 🤷🏻‍♂️ New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 10:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

6345

OptionProbability

Use up all of my tea ☕

Write 10 sonnets ✍🏻

Submit a play to my theatre club's short play festival 🎭

Donate my hair ✂️

Learn to whistle with two fingers 👆

Try 15 new recipes 👨🏻‍🍳

Eat good vegan cheese 🧀

Reach wave 4500 on tier 18 of "The Tower" 🗼

Speak with an MP about prediction markets 📈

Win a rap battle 🎤

Fix my dandruff ❄️

Donate plasma 20 times 🩸

75

55

55

55

55

55

50

50

44

41

28

28

A self described Solarpunk movie has a theatre release before Halloween 2030

Jan 9, 12:44 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

64.6%chance

11149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

971

Will Serie be alive at the end of the Foundation Festival arc?

Apr 11, 7:11 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

81.01%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

359

168

What year will Optimus first go to Burning Man festival?

Nov 23, 4:13 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

3109

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2025

18

18

17

17

17

13

Which men’s college basketball team will win the 2025 Players Era Festival?

Mar 26, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Alabama

Auburn

Houston

Michigan

Tennessee

Baylor

Creighton

Gonzaga

Iowa State

Kansas

Notre Dame

Oregon

Rutgers

San Diego St

St. John’s

Syracuse

Texas A&M

Saint Joseph’s

9

7

7

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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