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Prediction markets for Most Anticipated Game

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1714357

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

3

What year will GTA VI (6) come out

May 20, 4:48 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5212469

OptionProbability

2026

Later

2024

2025

94

5

0

0

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [actually]

Feb 3, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

389391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Is the probability of dying in Anthropic Snake Eyes 1/36?

Jul 20, 8:54 PMDec 31, 9:54 PM

18.62%chance

246864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

860

What year will Earthblade be released?

Mar 28, 1:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62615

OptionProbability

2028 or later, or never

2025

2024

2026

2027

99

1

0

0

0

will gta 6 come out before the end of 2026

Apr 18, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.16%chance

201345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

343

29

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will GTA6 have a free weekend/"free for limited time" right before (within 1.5 months b4) the 2028 presidential election

Jun 26, 7:02 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Home teams will win 50% or more in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season.

May 30, 1:59 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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