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People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Merch store
Predictle / any forecasting game
Charity lottery
User calibration
Better Explore page / Feed
Subscription plan
Interest on all positions
Perps
Any A/B tested UI change
Poker
Improved liquidity handling
Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets
interesting comment notifications
Negative risk conversion
Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options
Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)
UI/UX changes that favor limit orders
Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading
Dependent Set/M.C. markets that can sum to 200%, 300%, 400%, and so on
Market comment section search/filter
Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"
finer resolution betting near 0%/100%
An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes
Groups / communities
First class N/A resolution
Non third-party sign in
Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets
Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market
Clans
Parlays
Paid DMs
Private manifold instances
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
76
76
70
57
51
50
50
45
34
34
32
29
21
21
20
19
12
10
10
9
8
7
7
OptionProbability
The case settles before a verdict is reached.
The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.
Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.
New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.
Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
The case appears before the Supreme Court.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.
OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.
The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.
New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.
The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.
The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.
52
50
33
31
30
27
25
24
20
13
12
10
5
5
2
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Pick Six
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Any team scores 40+ points
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Safety Scored
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Overtime
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Fake Punt
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
A player gets an Octopus
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Fat Guy Touchdown*
Any 400 yard passer
Shutout
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Scorigami
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
87
84
80
78
77
74
71
70
68
62
54
53
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
43
41
41
39
39
38
37
37
34
33
32
24
24
22
18
18
6
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Pick Six
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Any team scores 40+ points
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Safety Scored
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
Fake Punt
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Scorigami
Lateral caught at least 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage (per gamebook) (non-last play of the game)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Any 400 yard passer
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Overtime
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
A player gets an Octopus
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
Fat Guy Touchdown*
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Shutout
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
91
85
76
76
72
72
71
69
59
59
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
45
45
45
45
41
41
31
31
31
29
23
19
10
6
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Any team scores 40+ points
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Pick Six
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Overtime
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
A player gets an Octopus
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Fake Punt
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Fat Guy Touchdown*
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
Safety Scored
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Any 400 yard passer
Shutout
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
Scorigami
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
86
86
80
76
74
72
69
66
60
59
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
44
44
43
41
41
41
37
37
35
34
34
31
31
31
24
24
21
20
19
9
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Pick Six
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Any team scores 40+ points
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Safety Scored
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Overtime
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Fake Punt
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
A player gets an Octopus
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Fat Guy Touchdown*
Any 400 yard passer
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Shutout
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Scorigami
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
86
84
78
77
76
73
70
69
67
60
54
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
47
47
45
45
45
45
44
41
41
40
39
38
37
37
34
34
33
24
24
22
20
20
5
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Pick Six
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Any team scores 40+ points
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Fake Punt
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Safety Scored
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Any 400 yard passer
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Overtime
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A player gets an Octopus
Scorigami
Fat Guy Touchdown*
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
Lateral caught at least 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage (per gamebook) (non-last play of the game)
All Starting Rookie QBs win
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Shutout
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
96
89
83
78
74
73
72
72
69
59
59
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
41
41
41
41
37
37
31
31
29
29
19
7
5
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Pick Six
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Any team scores 40+ points
Overtime
Safety Scored
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
A player gets an Octopus
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Fake Punt
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Fat Guy Touchdown*
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
Shutout
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
Any 400 yard passer
All Starting Rookie QBs win
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
Scorigami
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
86
86
80
80
80
78
71
69
69
69
55
54
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
45
45
45
45
44
41
41
41
41
37
37
34
34
31
31
31
26
24
24
20
20
5
OptionProbability
35% or higher Kick Return rate
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Pick Six
Overtime
California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)
A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts
Safety Scored
Fake Punt
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Any 400 yard passer
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Will a championship belt change teams?*
A 4th and 11+ is converted*
At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?
4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
A player gets an Octopus
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
All Starting Rookie QBs lose
The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number
Punt or Kick Return Touchdown
MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)
Fat Guy Touchdown*
3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)
Any team scores 40+ points
For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
All Starting Rookie QBs win
Scorigami
Shutout
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*
90
80
74
74
72
72
69
59
55
55
54
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
45
45
44
41
41
41
37
37
34
34
31
24
24
22
20
20
17
14
5
OptionProbability
Settlement
Judgement in favor of the Justice Department
Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation
Dismissal / dropped
Mistrial
56
23
11
5
5
OptionProbability
Texas will vote Democrat.
Other
California will vote Republican.
The Election will be canceled in favor of some other form of government being established.
48
48
3
1
OptionProbability
Trump is incumbent president
An incumbent senator loses general election
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
Zach Lahn wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Democrats win back the house majority
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
Democrats win both chamber of congress
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in an election in the 2026 midterms
An Incumbent governor loses general election
2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor
Democratic house victory gets stolen and tilted to GOP ruling favor
97
75
74
68
50
50
46
43
43
43
35
34
5