Most Innovative Companies News

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

YES

1307

768

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Jan 13, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61678

OptionProbability

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

Broadcom

Tesla

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Oct 26, 5:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

84.49%chance

111641

OptionVotes

YES

2334

428

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.25%chance

181394

OptionVotes

YES

1699

810

Will this tweet suggesting Extropic.AI is similar to Theranos be vindicated by mid 2028?

Mar 13, 9:26 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

54.54%chance

201151

OptionVotes

YES

1008

969

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

1393

720

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.59%chance

13874

OptionVotes

YES

1185

844

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

1091

949

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 6:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1269

OptionProbability

Yes, $100M+ valuation achieved by December 31, 2026

No, $100M+ valuation not achieved by December 31, 2026

Unresolvable / Ambiguous

Other

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

Will SABRE be tested in Earth's atmosphere by a free-flying aircraft before 2035?

May 13, 3:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

112

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

Most Innovative Companies News

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Companies

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Companies

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Companies

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

Will this tweet suggesting Extropic.AI is similar to Theranos be vindicated by mid 2028?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Will SABRE be tested in Earth's atmosphere by a free-flying aircraft before 2035?

Will Apple Emissions end at?

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