Most Innovative Companies News

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Jan 13, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92796

OptionProbability

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Microsoft

Apple

Amazon

Broadcom

Tesla

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Oct 26, 5:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.13%chance

121932

OptionVotes

YES

2144

467

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

161816

OptionVotes

YES

2283

438

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.25%chance

181394

OptionVotes

YES

1699

810

Will this tweet suggesting Extropic.AI is similar to Theranos be vindicated by mid 2028?

Mar 13, 9:26 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.16%chance

201202

OptionVotes

YES

1052

919

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

1374

730

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

1091

949

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 6:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1269

OptionProbability

Yes, $100M+ valuation achieved by December 31, 2026

No, $100M+ valuation not achieved by December 31, 2026

Unresolvable / Ambiguous

Other

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

Will SABRE be tested in Earth's atmosphere by a free-flying aircraft before 2035?

May 13, 3:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

112

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

Most Innovative Companies News

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Prediction markets for Most Innovative Companies

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Companies

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

Will this tweet suggesting Extropic.AI is similar to Theranos be vindicated by mid 2028?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Will SABRE be tested in Earth's atmosphere by a free-flying aircraft before 2035?

Will Apple Emissions end at?

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