Most Innovative Product News

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597852

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@Quroe

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.62%chance

317578

OptionVotes

YES

8332

3592

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

YES

3137

320

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

425357

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Pen

Earbuds

Other

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Mar 14, 9:24 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

5.88%chance

113279

OptionVotes

YES

4000

250

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

1023

838

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Oct 26, 5:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.13%chance

121932

OptionVotes

YES

2144

467

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.07%chance

271122

OptionVotes

YES

994

954

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

280

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

Most Innovative Product News

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Product

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Product

Prediction markets for Most Innovative Product

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Will Apple Emissions end at?

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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