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Prediction markets for Most Innovative Product

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

343235

OptionProbability

Earbuds

Pen

Other

Phone

AR/VR Goggles

Watch

Wearable badge

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

60

35

3

1

0

0

0

0

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.78%chance

303018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

840

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Mar 14, 9:24 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

14.56%chance

91702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2422

413

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Oct 26, 5:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

84.49%chance

111641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2334

428

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.56%chance

261072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

904

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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