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Prediction markets for Most Innovative Product

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

384018

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Earbuds

Other

Pen

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

72

14

10

4

0

0

0

0

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

838

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Mar 14, 9:24 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

14.56%chance

91702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2422

413

Will Apple release anything novel before 2028?

Oct 26, 5:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

84.49%chance

111641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2334

428

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.56%chance

261072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

904

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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