Most Shorted News

Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Car chase scene

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Bond drinks a martini

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

World capital other than London appears on screen

Hacking electronics of some form

Q appears

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

Blue-eyed Bond

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

Prison/jail scene

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Black market trafficking

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

Skydiving

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Desert scene

Nazis (neo- counts)

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond has facial hair

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond will be in a submarine

Bond goes to space

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Mexico is shown on screen

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Canada is shown on screen

Orgy

Will feature something that can turn invisible

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Underwater combat

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Bond is blond

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

A pinball machine will appear.

Pirates

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Assplay

Bond plays Russian roulette

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond won't be Caucasian

A hamburger appears on screen

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

Nuclear explosion

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Gay sex scene

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Vampires

Bond vapes

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

The fourth wall is broken

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Use sourdough instead of yeast

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Make banana bread

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Add garlic

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

put ketchup and cheese on it

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Brush on an egg wash

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Make the bread taste good

Bake for 15 more minutes

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Taste the bread

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Increase water by 50 g

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Strawberry jelly filling

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Add caffeine to the bread

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

it needs more salt

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

Other

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF / SPY

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF / UPRO

ProShares UltraPro QQQ / TQQQ

Nvidia stock NVDA

TSMC stock TSM

Berkshire Hathaway stock BRK.B

Google/Alphabet stock GOOG

Microsoft stock MSFT

Qualcomm stock QCOM

SoftBank Group Corp SFTBY

Novo Nordisk stock NVO

United Healthcare UNH

Tesla stock TSLA

Amazon stock AMZN

Ethereum ETH

Home Depot stock HD

Walmart stock WMT

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull ETF / SOXL

Gold

Facebook stock META

Apple stock AAPL

Litecoin LTC

McDonald's stock MCD

ASML stock

Costco stock COST

Domino’s stock DPZ

Bitcoin BTC

Reddit stock RDDT

Silver

Pfizer stock PFE

Dogecoin DOGE

Fidelity Money Market Fund / SPRXX

Counter Strike 2 Knife skin (Shadow Daggers Doppler factory new)

Rust skin (Tempered AK-47)

Rust skin (Tempered metal facemask)

Counter Strike 2 AWP skin (AWP Boom factory new)

Boeing stock BA

WDFC

RGTZ

Ripple XRP

Truth Social stock DJT

Gamestop stock GME

ProShares Short QQQ / PSQ

Nvidia stock NVDA

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF

Other

ProShares Short QQQ

Gold

Tesla stock TSLA

United Healthcare UNH

Facebook stock META

Bitcoin BTC

Ethereum ETH

Google/Alphabet stock

Microsoft stock MSFT

TSMC stock

Gamestop stock GME

SFTBY Softbank

Apple stock AAPL

Reddit stock RDDT

XRP Ripple

Amazon stock AMZN

Dogecoin DOGE

ASML stock

Figure Skating

Speed Skating

Alpine Skiing

Snowboard

Ski Mountaineering

Bobsleigh

Ice Hockey

Short Track Speed Skating

Curling

Freestyle Skiing

Skeleton

Cross-Country Skiing

Luge

Nordic Combined

Ski Jumping

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF

Gamestop stock GME

Other

Google/Alphabet stock

Gold

Nvidia stock NVDA

ProShares Short QQQ

SFTBY Softbank

Bitcoin BTC

Apple stock AAPL

Microsoft stock MSFT

United Healthcare UNH

Domino Pizza DPZ

Facebook stock META

Ethereum ETH

Tesla stock TSLA

Reddit stock RDDT

XRP Ripple

Amazon stock AMZN

TSMC stock

Dogecoin DOGE

Focusing on niche markets with less competition

Taking daily loans

Trader bonuses from questions I post

Focusing on binary YES/NO markets over multi-choice

Betting on short-odds positions (e.g. NO on an option that's sitting at 95%)

Other

Before humanity colonizes the universe, we must ensure that the future we would build is one worth living in.

Digital minds research is an important and neglected approach to AI safety.

Fun Fact: If you put “fun fact” before a completely made up statement, people are 69% more likely to believe it.

Past-you may have been a willing and enthusiastic sacrifice to present-you, and assuming you'll remain wiser, it was a worthwhile trade.

It's a good idea to buy lots of Microsoft stock right now

It's a good idea to short lots of Microsoft stock right now

If you sacrificed what you valued the most in order to survive, then from viewpoint of past-you you-present are already as good as dead

Capitalism will collapse in 2026

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"