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Prediction markets for Move

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

5%chance

2437618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43611

2295

Next stock to move >10% on an OpenAI partnership?

Oct 6, 9:44 PMApr 30, 10:36 PM

135943

OptionProbability

Other

CoreWeave

Vimeo

TSMC

Oklo

Peloton Interactive

Intel

GE Vernova

Micron

Adobe

IBM

AMD

Eli Lilly

Oracle

Apple

SMCI

Dell

Microsoft

Broadcom

41

12

11

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will we discover any large object moving faster than 0.1c (inflation-adjusted) in free space before 2040?

Nov 3, 7:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.65%chance

61526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

541

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

49.14%chance

171485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

Will at least one US World Cup game be moved because of Trump politics?

Jun 7, 5:15 AMJul 20, 5:03 AM

30.08%chance

181388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

947

Will the UK move to what I consider to be ~a german/dutch healthcare system by 2035?

Dec 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.35%chance

14710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

972

Before 2028, will popular mobile phones begin incorporating folding screens or other large moving parts?

Feb 9, 11:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.09%chance

11602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

786

When Taiwan moves from the 21st position on the UN nominal GDP measure, it will move up.

Jul 27, 7:43 PMJul 4, 3:59 AM

74.75%chance

13324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

924

In the FIFA 2026 World Cup, which teams will place 2nd or 3rd in their group AND move on to the knockout phase?

Feb 2, 7:59 PMJun 24, 5:05 PM

00

OptionProbability

USA

Canada

Mexico

50

50

50

When will Shefali move (back) to SF?

Oct 25, 1:22 AMJun 1, 1:16 AM

00

OptionProbability

Nov 2025

Dec 2025

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Not before May 2026

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

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