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Top stories

Aave V3 Launches on Aptos with $70 Billion TVL, Chainlink Feeds and Liquidity Rewards

Aave V3 Launches on Aptos with $70 Billion TVL, Chainlink Feeds and Liquidity Rewards

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Move language

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.84%chance

22502116876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5192

3628

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.78%chance

424145426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2403

417

Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?

Feb 11, 6:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.07%chance

426565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2164

852

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

Aug 11, 4:42 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

441804

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

88

86

78

66

34

0

0

Will the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?

Mar 10, 1:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

97.64%chance

6690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

643

16

Will the Catala legal programming language still be maintained in 2030?

Sep 18, 8:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.59%chance

15583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

668

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.36%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

48

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.78%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.3%chance

5264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

79

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.87%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

59

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