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Top stories

Aave V3 Launches on Aptos with $70 Billion TVL, Chainlink Feeds and Liquidity Rewards

Aave V3 Launches on Aptos with $70 Billion TVL, Chainlink Feeds and Liquidity Rewards

Authors

9

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Move language

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

42.8%chance

21791948676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5016

3757

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.55%chance

395131649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2769

361

Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?

Feb 11, 6:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.85%chance

416066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2538

835

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?

Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM

67.92%chance

221527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

687

Will the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?

Mar 10, 1:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

97.64%chance

6690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

643

16

Will the Catala legal programming language still be maintained in 2030?

Sep 18, 8:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.74%chance

14367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

947

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.17%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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