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Prediction markets for Moving Average

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

36.42%chance

21294857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7340

6190

Bitcoin 79k in end march

Mar 27, 9:31 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.17%chance

1720547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9183

109

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3717854

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

49

41

36

24

0

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.58%chance

271461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

872

Ukraine joins EU before 2029?

Dec 23, 11:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11%chance

12678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

Dec 19, 2:10 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

70.33%chance

27542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

953

BIFI (Beefy Finance) reaches 1000 before March 31?

Jan 10, 7:11 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

8.89%chance

4290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5105

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

80

67

60

34

22

Will the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?

Mar 7, 1:25 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54%chance

482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

596

527

Will the Singularity be marked with a new "baby boom"?

Jun 26, 10:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.64%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Percentage On?

Mar 26, 7:17 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

240

OptionProbability

July 31st

June 30th

May 31st

April 30th

59

54

46

19

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