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Prediction markets for mRNA

Do the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines/boosters increase all-cause mortality significantly?

Jan 8, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.15%chance

486193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

928

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.33%chance

151567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

865

Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025

Nov 7, 6:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.97%chance

181374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

819

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.98%chance

10610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

866

US administration bans mRNA vaccines?

Jun 14, 7:14 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

16.05%chance

16567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

516

152

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.29%chance

9506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

373

360

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against malaria before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

10252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

394

379

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.38%chance

10235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

527

481

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.67%chance

8216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

515

302

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.98%chance

5155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

300

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Apr 20, 9:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.24%chance

574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

80

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.2%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

283

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