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Multiplier News

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Sep 20, 7:29 PMJun 29, 3:59 AM

54.37%chance

7645174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

1080

What will GPT-5's context size be? (2025)

Jun 3, 2:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9538185

OptionProbability

1024k

4096k

2048k

256k

512k

4k

128k

0

2k

8k

16k

32k

64k

71

9

6

5

5

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18427777

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

Other

Euclid (of Geometry)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

46

21

16

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

15.29%chance

9117542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2670

2113

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

How biased is this coin?

Aug 25, 8:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.13%chance

403145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

934

Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Mar 4, 7:47 PMFeb 5, 4:59 AM

17.84%chance

182443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

911

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Can two n x n matrices be multiplied in O(n^2.15) time?

Nov 25, 5:00 AMNov 13, 11:59 PM

63.91%chance

421500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

957

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.72%chance

10400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

834

How many multiplications are required to multiply 5x5 matrices over Z2?

Feb 9, 6:03 PMFeb 17, 5:59 AM

6137

OptionProbability

<=94

<=64

76

26

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