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Prediction markets for Music

Will the Unsong musical be good?

Feb 23, 8:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.82%chance

5780925

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

957

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.85%chance

2119550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

673

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Jan 9, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.48%chance

6716097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

877

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

19.57%chance

376585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

285

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14631

6838

Will a new musical by Lin-Manuel Miranda premier by the end of 2025?

Aug 3, 7:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.36%chance

9854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

614

Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025?

Dec 31, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.75%chance

18690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

951

Will Spotify remain the most popular music streaming platform in the US at the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 4:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.54%chance

14500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

747

Will there be a Book of Mormon movie or series based off the Broadway Musical before EOY 2029?

Mar 11, 5:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.81%chance

16288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

944

Will my DJ set at Jesscamp 4 contain any AI-generated music?

May 21, 8:57 AMDec 29, 4:59 AM

39.01%chance

3258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will the album “Warriors” be adapted as a musical that premieres by 2030?

Nov 30, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.8%chance

5201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

890

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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