My Turn News

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Someone solves agent foundations

Other

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

🫸vibealignment🫷

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

Car chase scene

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Bond tells ≥1 joke

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

Bond drinks a martini

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Sex scene

World capital other than London appears on screen

Hacking electronics of some form

Q appears

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

Blue-eyed Bond

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

Prison/jail scene

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Black market trafficking

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Desert scene

Nazis (neo- counts)

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond has facial hair

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Bond wears a mask

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond will be in a submarine

Bond goes to space

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

Mexico is shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Canada is shown on screen

Sharks

Orgy

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

Will feature something that can turn invisible

A pinball machine will appear.

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Underwater combat

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Bond is blond

Pirates

Assplay

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond won't be Caucasian

A hamburger appears on screen

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Nuclear explosion

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

Bond plays Russian roulette

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Gay sex scene

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Vampires

Bond vapes

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

The fourth wall is broken

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

It won’t happen by the end of 2025

The IOC and/or US Olympic committee will threaten participation bans against anyone participating in the Enhanced Games

Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games

It will run over budget

There will be a restriction on political speech by participants and/or their teams by the Games

Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)

A country will ban or restrict participation in the Enhanced Games

Dana White will attend the Enhanced Games

Athletes from the United States will win the most events

A Fortune 100 company or brand will sponsor the Enhanced Games

Swimming, gymnastics, weightlifting, track and field, and combat will be the ONLY event categories

A prominent financial backer will bail out of the project before the Games

A woman will break a formal world record previously held by a man, for any amount of time

A leg is lost (whatever that means)

Participants from 25 or more countries will enter the Games

Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)

A nation's prime minister, president, monarch, or other world leader will attend the Enhanced Games

10 or more formal world records will be broken

Athletes from Russia will win the most events

It will turn a profit

There will be a protest of 1000+ people outside of the of the event for at least 1 hour, on one day

Athletes from China will win the most events

An athlete will become paralyzed, braindead, or otherwise severely disabled (but not killed) during training or competition for the Games

50 or more formal world records will be broken

It will be a culture war adjacent topic

Someone will run the 100 meter dash faster than 9.58 seconds

Someone will die while competing, or up to 24 hours after competing

Athletes from India will win the most events

The Enhanced Games will start and finish before the end of Q3 2025

A Storm with Thunder, Lightning, and Hail (and optionally, Fire)

Swarm of Locusts (or Cicadas)

Infestation of Lice (or Bedbugs)

Infestation of (Flies / Wild Animals)

3 days of Darkness (or Wildfire smog or power Blackout)

Pestilence of Livestock

Outbreak of Boils

Water turning into blood (or Red Tide)

Swarm of Frogs

Civilization ( VII or some other title, but different from VI and not some remaster of II or III etc, spin-off included)

Europa Universalis ( V )

Total War series (not just DLC for pharaon, but different game)

Stellaris ( II )

Hearts of Iron ( V )

Heroes of Might and Magic ( VIII or some other title ... )

Cossacks ( 4 )

Age of Empires (franchise, not part V, but spin off, such as AoE Online)

Company of Heroes ( IV )

Battle Realms ( 2 or some other title )

Star Craft (turned based game or some other spin off)

Homeworld ( IV or other title , but not DLC for HW:III )

Command & Conquer Red Alert ( 4 )

StarCraft (III)

Sudden Strike ( V )

End of Nations

Empire Earth ( IV)

WarCraft (IV)

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Human 65+ flies to Mars first

I'm serious about my other predictions.

Humanity should pivot from (converting oil into artificial intelligence capabilities) to (converting mechanistically interpretable human cognitive labor into decentralized constitutional parameters for guiding collective intelligence).

It would be helpful if every important thought leader had a prediction similar to this to formalize their positions on complicated issues.

Aligning AI is a job everyone should have the right to earn a living by doing.

I am trying to pay you to help me map my beliefs.

I'm trying to get people to help me write the constitution of truth for AI.

This is Krantz data.

Krantz data is money.

I believe everybody doing this is the solution to alignment.

We could turn X into a machine that allows us to print our own crypto by doing philosophy and arguing about literally everything.

I am challenging all the analytic philosophers on Manifold to an argument about whatever topic they choose.

The main thing we need to do to solve alignment and game theoretic peace is to get all the important philosophers in the world to start talking in analytic English instead of continental English, so we can map our language properly.

Wiggenstien was right the first time and everyone's personal truth is compatible.

Financial and physical oppression and war are side effects of not being able to communicate effectively.

If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.

If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.

If Americans had the right to express their support (or opposition) for each proposition of the constitution (both securely and publicly in a way that can be operated on), we wouldn't need politicians.

If all humans had the right to vote on the constitution that controls AI, AI would be decentrally controlled by a market of opinions.

If humans could print their own money by voting on propositions that control AI, education would be economically accelerated several orders of magnitude.

The solution to aligning ASI is really simple.

Krantz has the most important message to give to society. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-person-had-the-most-important?r=S3JhbnR6

YES

There were no mobile phones: if someone did not show up at a rendezvous, you could only call him at home

It was allowed to smoke in bars and trains, even when children were present

The whole family used the same computer, which stood inside a dedicated piece of furniture

During holidays we used to eat from single-use plastic plates to avoid having to clean the dishes

Love Is A Long Road - Tom Petty

Turn Red - M Dot R

Gospel - Dr. Dre

Everybody Have Fun Tonight - Wang Chung

Talkin' to Myself Again - Tammy Wynette

Hot Together - The Pointer Sisters

Take the Money and Run - Steve Miller Band

Child Support - Zenglen

I Love Rock 'n' Roll - Joan Jett & the Blackhearts