My View News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A second major version of the model has been released

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

Video will include sound

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

Sora will be part of GPT model

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

It has been renamed

It will be free to use

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A third major version of the model has been released

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

Full description of model architecture will be public

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Stage a musical 🐉

Go on 20 dates 💌

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

Saw XI Releases in USA

alan greenspan passes away

coup in an african country

noam chomsky passes away

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

another trump assassination attempt

discord IPO happens

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

zootopia 2 releases

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

manifold raises more money

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

MLB rookie of the year announced

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

stripe ipo happens

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

trump removes a cabinet member

windows 12 announcement is made

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

Skate 4 releases

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

trump starts mass deportations

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

Death Stranding 2 releases

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold

Bitcoin reaches $100K

nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple

Jimmy Carter dies

Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard

Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election

Manifest 2025 ends

GTA 6 is released

windows 12 released by microsoft

Joe Biden dies

Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine

king charles no longer king of uk

Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer

Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public

Official sub 2:00 marathon

chat gpt 6 released

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means

Vladimir Putin dies

Lex Fridman interviews Putin

Human steps foot on the moon again

Moldova joins NATO

Kingdom Hearts 4 released

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time

Credible reports of AGI

Woman becomes President of the United States

Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)

One Piece manga final chapter and series ends

Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M

George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )

Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison

China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan

Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess

Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)

The United States leaves NATO

assange extradited to usa

Austin

Atlanta

San Jose

Mountain View

Palo Alto

Los Altos

Sunnyvale

San Diego, CA

Miami

Dallas

Las Vegas

Tucson

New York

Houston, TX

Charlotte

Albuquerque

San Antonio, TX

Sacramento

Boston, MA

Chicago

Jacksonville, FL

Washington DC

5/15 Phase 1: It will be "Me at the Zoo" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNQXAC9IVRw&vl=en

5/15 Phase 2: Watch it from start to finish once

5/16 Phase 2: Watch it from start to finish

5/16 Phase 2: Dislike it

5/16 Phase 1: It will be "The first video on YouTube..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSTE-SJjhnM&ab_channel=Beluga

5/17 Phase 1: Older than 2 years

5/17 Phase 1: >1M views

5/17 Phase 1: Contains 1 cat

5/17 Phase 1: It will be "If Elon Musk owned Discord...": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqhEFk-zdEU

[Placeholder]

5/17 Phase 2: Dislike it

5/17 Phase 2: Like it

5/15 Phase 2: Like it

5/15 Phase 2: Subscribe to its channel

5/15 Phase 2: Share it

5/15 Phase 2: Dislike it

5/16 Phase 1: It will be a meme compilation

5/16 Phase 1: Publish date will be from more than 10 years ago

NO

YES

NO

Other

Austin, TX

Palo Alto, CA

San Francisco, CA

New York, NY

Houston, TX

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

London, UK

Seattle, WA