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Prediction markets for Name

Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries?

Sep 1, 10:03 PMDec 14, 4:59 AM

13.31%chance

615933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

392

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

171638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Name something AI has gotten crazy good at in the last year. (Bilt Rent Free Jul 1, 2026)

Jun 25, 5:49 PMJul 1, 7:30 PM

281541

OptionProbability

Video/image gen

Coding

Nothing

Taking jobs

Research

Lying

Reasoning

Music gen

Therapy

Travel planning

Recipes

Automation

77

70

33

31

30

23

22

20

14

12

11

7

Will I be the top google result for my name by the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.91%chance

8861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

622

Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)

Jan 18, 6:19 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20%chance

18821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

931

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.94%chance

13712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

924

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

13621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

990

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.26%chance

18373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

960

At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?

May 21, 3:39 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

39.52%chance

7372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

808

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.35%chance

15231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

933

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