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Prediction markets for Name

Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries?

Sep 1, 10:03 PMDec 14, 4:59 AM

10.41%chance

638311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2934

341

Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?

Mar 28, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.61%chance

167570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5004

89

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

181758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Is Rationalussy the true name of God?

Mar 23, 7:24 AMApr 20, 10:09 AM

59.19%chance

251227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

843

Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)

Jan 18, 6:19 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20%chance

18826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

931

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.51%chance

17708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

965

Will Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by January 1 2028?

Sep 21, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.13%chance

9527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

819

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.87%chance

19423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

952

At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?

May 21, 3:39 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

39.52%chance

7372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

808

What AI companies will name Things after Trump?

Sep 23, 6:02 PMSep 1, 6:00 PM

267

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Meta

xAI

Nvidia

28

28

28

28

28

28

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