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Prediction markets for Names Rule

Outcome of Musk v OpenAI?

May 4, 10:14 PMMay 31, 10:08 PM

17025487

OptionProbability

Full defense win

Musk win - monetary relief only

Settlement

Musk win - with structural relief

Mistrial, dismissal, or other procedural resolution

39

24

24

9

4

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3119569

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

<0.5%

1-1.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

41

20

16

7

6

4

3

3

2

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2262

219

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Apr 1, 6:20 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

307386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4650

215

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.4%chance

144009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.77%chance

83404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4040

248

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

39.27%chance

273123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

760

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

28.79%chance

61530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

7950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

526

Will the "bald-hairy" pattern of Russian rulers continue after Putin?

Dec 12, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

27737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

828

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.28%chance

8636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

613

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