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Prediction markets for Names Rule

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2315614

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

23

20

17

14

9

5

4

4

3

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2262

219

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Apr 1, 6:20 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.28%chance

286881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4237

236

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.41%chance

83311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2933

341

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.02%chance

143293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

516

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

39.27%chance

273123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

760

Who will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]

Sep 4, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

141289

OptionProbability

Josh Johnson

Hasan Minhaj

Desi Lydic

Ronny Chieng

No permanent host by 2030

Stephen Colbert

Other

Michael Kosta

Dulcé Sloan

Troy Iwata

Grace Kuhlenschmidt

Lewis Black

Jordan Klepper

John Leguizamo

Leslie Jones

Roy Wood Jr.

Jon Stewart

Trevor Noah

35

11

10

6

6

6

6

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

40.25%chance

41142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.58%chance

6850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

555

Will the "bald-hairy" pattern of Russian rulers continue after Putin?

Dec 12, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

27737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

828

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.54%chance

7586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1582

632

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