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Prediction markets for Names Rule

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2515681

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

24

19

18

14

9

5

4

4

3

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2262

219

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Apr 1, 6:20 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.49%chance

296886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4150

241

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.41%chance

83311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2933

341

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.02%chance

143293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

516

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

39.27%chance

273123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

760

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

29.8%chance

51492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?

Feb 13, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

7950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

526

Will the "bald-hairy" pattern of Russian rulers continue after Putin?

Dec 12, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

27737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

828

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.28%chance

8636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

613

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?

Jan 19, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6194

OptionProbability

Luis Inácio Lula da Silva

Romeu Zema

Flávio Bolsonaro

Tarcísio Freitas

91

76

50

6

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