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Prediction markets for Nath

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

110390726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

1512

Nathan Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 4:29 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

7334893

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1402

1057

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7032625

OptionProbability

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

Dies before AGI has been developed

Makes it to 1000

Dies for other reason post-AGI

Chooses not to live to 1000

33

28

15

14

6

4

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.98%chance

598328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3890

1487

What will be true of the first person to marry Nathan Young?

Jun 20, 7:55 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

15333

OptionProbability

Woman

5'2" or taller

5'4" or taller

wears contact lenses/glasses

Owns a dog at time of meeting him

American citizen

Blood Type O

Born in the United States

Red Haired

has a phd or masters degree or higher

5'8" or taller

diabetic

European citizen

Libra or Cancer

6'0" or taller

voted for trump

Bald

89

80

74

57

50

50

49

45

37

37

31

31

28

25

10

8

8

Will at least 2 of Myself, Nathan young and Stefan Schubert be gainfully employed on Jan 1st 2035?

Jan 20, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.26%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

975

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Genesis Lung?

Aug 28, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Brad English?

Aug 28, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Jose Luis Ricon (JLR)

Aug 28, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Max Novendstern?

Aug 28, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Alex Trapp?

Aug 28, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Jenvel Pei (of Ageless Civilization)?

Aug 28, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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