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Prediction markets for National AI Strategy

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4655

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

15

15

15

15

15

12

9

4

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