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Prediction markets for National AI Strategy

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5705

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

7

4

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

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