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Prediction markets for National Day

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

39.14%chance

9610404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

939

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

47

39

39

30

25

21

19

Who will win the new race to the Moon?

Aug 12, 1:04 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

688007

OptionProbability

USA

China

Europe

Russia

India

Other

68

30

1

0

0

0

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

67.6%chance

537244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

692

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.27%chance

201837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

943

¿Partido ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de Honduras en 2025? / Winning party of Honduras' 2025 pres. election?

Nov 29, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91464

OptionProbability

Libertad y Refundación

Partido Nacional

Partido Liberal

Otro / Other

36

36

32

3

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election?

Oct 30, 12:02 AMNov 2, 6:59 AM

26.37%chance

14582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

962

Reparations by 2030?

Feb 10, 10:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.1%chance

28559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

938

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

72.88%chance

11474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

831

Will a national referendum take place in 2025 in France?

Jan 2, 10:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.3%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

974

Will Donald Trump‘s approval drop below 40% before US midterm election

Jul 20, 2:44 PMNov 3, 12:00 AM

61.6%chance

16341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

885

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

55.16%chance

7277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

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