National Security Law News

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.13%chance

15536568

OptionVotes

YES

1225

866

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

6356

157

Will martial law be declared in Taiwan before 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.76%chance

102262

OptionVotes

YES

2403

416

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92178

OptionProbability

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

100

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

2277

439

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

1194

838

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

YES

1123

942

Trump deport people in 2025?

Apr 18, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8650

Will any of the 'Hong Kong Eight' appear in police custody in Hong Kong before 2028?

Jul 11, 9:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

32.63%chance

4144

OptionVotes

YES

122

China to convict foreigner under NSL before end of 2026?

Aug 1, 9:43 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

58.82%chance

8110

OptionVotes

YES

218

185

Chip Security Act becomes law in 2025

May 16, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.51%chance

366

OptionVotes

YES

135

Will the Chinese Government misuse Vanguard before 2050?

May 4, 7:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

130

National Security Law News

Prediction markets for National Security Law

Prediction markets for National Security Law

Prediction markets for National Security Law

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Will martial law be declared in Taiwan before 2026?

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Trump deport people in 2025?

Will any of the 'Hong Kong Eight' appear in police custody in Hong Kong before 2028?

China to convict foreigner under NSL before end of 2026?

Chip Security Act becomes law in 2025

Will the Chinese Government misuse Vanguard before 2050?

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