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Prediction markets for Natural Language Processing

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

64.28%chance

12925312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4316

3065

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10.51%chance

729656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

681

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.22%chance

394318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2127

662

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Dec 14, 4:38 PMDec 30, 11:00 PM

2.73%chance

231441

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1231

989

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23798

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Gemini CLI

Codebuff

Other

OpenCode

Qwen Code

Cursor CLI

Warp

82

8

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.29%chance

20702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

867

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

7432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will the first robotic AGI be developed using a transformer-like architecture?

Mar 19, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

163

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