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Prediction markets for Natural Language Processing

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

96.2%chance

14444304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19028

960

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

86.76%chance

414345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1937

689

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.89%chance

444068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3679

1257

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.85%chance

132658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2075

482

In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Dec 14, 4:38 PMDec 30, 11:00 PM

2.73%chance

231441

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1231

989

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28874

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Hermes Agent

Other

Pi

Codebuff

Gemini CLI

OpenCode

Qwen Code

Cursor CLI

Warp

63

21

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.33%chance

21752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

804

AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.49%chance

11460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

326

108

Will the first robotic AGI be developed using a transformer-like architecture?

Mar 19, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

163

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