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Prediction markets for Natural Language Processing

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.31%chance

2629485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23517

4252

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

61.69%chance

12925056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4055

3218

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10%chance

586790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2525

670

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.19%chance

332522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

688

In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Dec 14, 4:38 PMDec 30, 11:00 PM

3.25%chance

22915

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1036

995

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.48%chance

19631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

951

By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?

Nov 23, 8:18 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

74.8%chance

7165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

78

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