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Prediction markets for Natural Language Search

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

Jul 26, 11:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.18%chance

4711467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1929

518

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

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