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Prediction markets for Nature Aging

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7032625

OptionProbability

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

Dies before AGI has been developed

Makes it to 1000

Dies for other reason post-AGI

Chooses not to live to 1000

33

28

15

14

6

4

Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?

Jun 13, 5:31 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

599739

OptionProbability

Completes full term

Dies of natural causes or illness

Does not complete term

Dies from assassination or external violence

Other

70

16

12

2

0

Will I be pregnant by this time next year?

Sep 3, 2:40 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

16.88%chance

375011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2219

451

Will aging be cured by 2100?

Mar 16, 3:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

56.14%chance

444672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

839

Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.

Nov 7, 1:55 AMJan 20, 5:59 AM

83%chance

373816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2210

453

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.66%chance

243458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

829

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3255

688

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies?

Jul 18, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.34%chance

333019

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1050

828

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Jan 11, 11:43 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

78.62%chance

171822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1937

261

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.33%chance

161319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

874

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.58%chance

371178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2083

1816

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