Nature Communications News

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

YES

1846

1470

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

614993

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030?

Oct 2, 8:17 PMJan 1, 10:21 PM

11.09%chance

151372

OptionVotes

YES

552

196

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

May 4, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.69%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

137

121

Will Kanye Say something Antisemitic before June?

Jan 1, 3:32 AMJun 2, 3:59 AM

79.41%chance

4106

OptionVotes

YES

196

Milestone events in humanoid robot development before 2030

Jun 7, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

335

OptionProbability

A humanoid robot completes a full Marathon race.

A humanoid robot is featured on the cover of a major fashion magazine.

A humanoid robot is featured on the cover of Time magazine.

A humanoid robot capable of bipedal motion and natural language communication available for sale on Amazon.

Nature Communications News

Prediction markets for Nature Communications

Prediction markets for Nature Communications

Prediction markets for Nature Communications

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

Will Kanye Say something Antisemitic before June?

Milestone events in humanoid robot development before 2030

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