Nature Communications News

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

2588

1201

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

YES

1846

1470

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030?

Oct 2, 8:17 PMJan 1, 10:21 PM

11.63%chance

211448

OptionVotes

YES

531

199

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

May 4, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.1%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

147

116

Milestone events in humanoid robot development before 2030

Jun 7, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

465

OptionProbability

A humanoid robot completes a full Marathon race.

A humanoid robot is featured on the cover of a major fashion magazine.

A humanoid robot is featured on the cover of Time magazine.

A humanoid robot capable of bipedal motion and natural language communication available for sale on Amazon.

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Nature Communications News

Prediction markets for Nature Communications

Prediction markets for Nature Communications

Prediction markets for Nature Communications

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)

Milestone events in humanoid robot development before 2030

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

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