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Prediction markets for Nature Human Behavior

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Should society have pivoted from artificial intelligence to krantz collective intelligence?

Jan 21, 8:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.94%chance

41861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1729

578

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.62%chance

16720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

948

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.64%chance

16674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

959

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will there be a medical intervention that reliably alters Big 5 personality traits for willing participants before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

14379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?

Sep 2, 8:22 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.78%chance

11161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

949

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.86%chance

499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

88

Will someone release a Wan2.1 model finetuned on anthro whales?

Mar 8, 1:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.76%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

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