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Nature Human Behavior News
Prediction markets for Nature Human Behavior
Prediction markets for Nature Human Behavior
Will Koi be the first species we uplift?
Dec 20, 7:30 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
13.03%
chance
73
8853
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2588
1201
Aliens kill at least one human before 2035
Jul 22, 6:14 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
7.55%
chance
26
1538
Option
Votes
NO
YES
980
831
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%
chance
25
1329
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1017
852
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PM
Dec 18, 2:59 PM
28.12%
chance
25
1306
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1669
510
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:37 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
86.64%
chance
16
674
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1123
959
Will there be a medical intervention that reliably alters Big 5 personality traits for willing participants before 2030?
Jan 11, 10:59 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
30.88%
chance
14
379
Option
Votes
YES
NO
150
67
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
Sep 2, 8:22 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
30.55%
chance
12
261
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1049
967
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030?
Jun 1, 6:37 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
69.86%
chance
4
99
Option
Votes
NO
YES
145
88
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