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Top stories

Tourist Surge Leaves Antarctic Snow 10-Times Dirtier, Study Finds

Tourist Surge Leaves Antarctic Snow 10-Times Dirtier, Study Finds

Authors

15

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Nature Sustainability

Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.08%chance

441459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1793

711

Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.24%chance

81370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

163

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will there be a medical intervention that reliably alters Big 5 personality traits for willing participants before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

14379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026?

Oct 12, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

56.42%chance

15376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

39

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

66

In what year will AI achieve 90% of progress in TextQuests benchmark?

Aug 9, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

270

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2025

31

12

12

12

12

12

10

Suffering and Human Meaning compared to Past (read description)

Apr 13, 6:10 PM

230

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