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Top stories

Tourist Surge Leaves Antarctic Snow 10-Times Dirtier, Study Finds

Tourist Surge Leaves Antarctic Snow 10-Times Dirtier, Study Finds

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Nature Sustainability

Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.08%chance

441459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1793

711

Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.24%chance

81370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

163

Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

Apr 21, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

25913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.59%chance

12834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

602

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

26756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

When will global population peak?

May 6, 10:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4703

OptionProbability

2071 or after

2065-2070

2060-2064

2055-2059

2050-2054

2040-2044

2045-2049

2034 or before

2035-2039

24

18

17

15

8

6

6

3

3

Will there be a medical intervention that reliably alters Big 5 personality traits for willing participants before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

14379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

66

In what year will AI achieve 90% of progress in TextQuests benchmark?

Aug 9, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

270

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2025

31

12

12

12

12

12

10

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Andrew G York win the Dickson Prize in Science?

May 22, 2:06 AMJan 1, 3:05 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Suffering and Human Meaning compared to Past (read description)

Apr 13, 6:10 PM

230

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