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Top stories

Tourist Surge Leaves Antarctic Snow 10-Times Dirtier, Study Finds

Tourist Surge Leaves Antarctic Snow 10-Times Dirtier, Study Finds

Authors

15

16 hours ago

Prediction markets for Nature Sustainability

Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.08%chance

441459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1793

711

Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.24%chance

81370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

163

Will there be a medical intervention that reliably alters Big 5 personality traits for willing participants before 2030?

Jan 11, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

14379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

6284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.

Oct 1, 3:11 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

44%chance

12171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

993

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.14%chance

9129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

In what year will AI achieve 90% of progress in TextQuests benchmark?

Aug 9, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

270

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2025

31

12

12

12

12

12

10

Suffering and Human Meaning compared to Past (read description)

Apr 13, 6:10 PM

230

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