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Prediction markets for Nature
How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?
Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
59.9%chance
243170837
OptionProbability
4793
4747
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
90.97%chance
11626804
OptionVotes
2867
552
In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation
Sep 5, 3:34 PMSep 5, 3:34 PM
55.2%chance
129711
OptionVotes
1111
901
If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.09%chance
629496
OptionVotes
1241
812
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
Nov 7, 1:55 AMJan 20, 5:59 AM
81.09%chance
497126
OptionVotes
2071
483
Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
226519
OptionProbability
68
8
7
7
7
0
Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM
42.29%chance
206464
OptionVotes
12015
8196
OptionVotes
1647
1345
Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?
Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%chance
251969
OptionVotes
1667
397
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
67.87%chance
21620
OptionVotes
1044
842
Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.
Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM
62.31%chance
13532
OptionVotes
1286
778
Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
56.39%chance
4505
OptionVotes
1137
879