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Prediction markets for Net Winnings

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

JasonTheWeen™ Stock ©

Apr 11, 7:34 AM

1723169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1354

403

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Jan 7, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

609314

OptionProbability

Republicans

Democrats

Independents

54

46

0

Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?

Feb 20, 1:55 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

82%chance

374423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

213

47

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

463672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

573

Which party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2027 in the 120th Congress.

Jan 12, 9:24 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

101508

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

82

18

Which party will hold the majority in the US Senate of the 120th Congress in January 2027?

Jan 12, 9:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

22705

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

52

48

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

77

20

2

1

Democrats win 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election?

Dec 21, 9:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.8%chance

10416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

88

Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?

Jun 23, 10:56 PMSep 21, 11:59 PM

34%chance

9288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Join the first Manifold Guild an receive M500!

Jan 12, 6:39 PM

00

Join the first Manifold Guild an receive M500!

Jan 10, 8:04 PM

00

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