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Neural Information Models News
Prediction markets for Neural Information Models
Prediction markets for Neural Information Models
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
Oct 19, 6:00 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
50.2%
chance
116
36496
Option
Votes
YES
NO
14299
6435
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%
chance
22
6982
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3477
288
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
23.33%
chance
23
3405
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1363
839
Will the first AGI be a transformer model?
Jan 1, 4:54 PM
Dec 31, 6:59 PM
46.35%
chance
12
885
Option
Votes
NO
YES
704
414
Will different hardware be used for training and for inference of neural-networks? (before 2030)
Dec 17, 8:58 AM
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
89.66%
chance
17
680
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1004
550
Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?
Nov 11, 11:36 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.48%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
NO
YES
114
88
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