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Prediction markets for NeurIPS

When will the average number of submissions to top AI conferences first decline over the previous year?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46979

OptionProbability

2025

>2034

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031-2034

Other

17

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Will I get into a "top" university for CS in US?

May 19, 5:30 AMMay 2, 5:12 AM

11652

OptionProbability

Yes

No

82

18

Will Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) be used/studied in at least five orals at NeurIPS 2027?

May 2, 7:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.99%chance

11323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

Will the "Attention Is All You Need" Paper be given the Test of Time Award in NeurIPS 2027?

Jul 23, 7:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Jose Luis Ricon attend a NeurIPS by EOY2028?

Dec 6, 7:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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