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Prediction markets for Neuro

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Does Biden have a neurological disorder in the years 2020-2024?

Dec 15, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.94%chance

331381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

524

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <100 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 6:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.04%chance

171095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

593

When will the Aspirational Neuroscience Memory Decoding Prize be won, if it is won by 2045?

Dec 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5645

OptionProbability

2027

2035

2031

2033

2029

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

Later than 2045 or never

59

7

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will we find polysemanticity via superposition in neurons in the brain before 2040?

Jan 21, 10:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.87%chance

4245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

96

Will we consider the first AGI system to be neuro-symbolic?

Nov 18, 9:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4190

OptionProbability

Mixed levels, heterogeneous components, or otherwise

Symbolic at the high level, neuro at the low level

Neuro-symbolic from the ground up

Neuro from the ground up

Symbolic from the ground up

Neuro at the high level, symbolic at the low level

52

25

17

3

2

2

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <10 000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.89%chance

3135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

884

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Nov 29, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.13%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

Will Alexander Huth (the neuroscientist) serve as an advisor for an AI company like OpenAI OR a neuro X AI company?

Nov 25, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.08%chance

317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

83

60

Will NeuroField Neurotherapy use a kernel flow helmet by EOY2028?

Sep 27, 3:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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