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Prediction markets for Neuro

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

If a solid neurological study of trans women gets performed, what will the results most resemble?

Feb 26, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

583812

OptionProbability

Neither

Feminine essence

Feminine autogynephilia

Just autogynephilia

Blanchardian

49

30

13

7

1

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Does Biden have a neurological disorder in the years 2020-2024?

Dec 15, 7:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.94%chance

331381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

524

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <100 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 6:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.04%chance

171095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

593

Will there be a 'Neurodiversity' emoji by EOY 2029?

Feb 16, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.97%chance

14386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

90

Will we consider the first AGI system to be neuro-symbolic?

Nov 18, 9:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4190

OptionProbability

Mixed levels, heterogeneous components, or otherwise

Symbolic at the high level, neuro at the low level

Neuro-symbolic from the ground up

Neuro from the ground up

Symbolic from the ground up

Neuro at the high level, symbolic at the low level

52

25

17

3

2

2

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <10 000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.89%chance

3135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

884

Will Neuromyst or Neurode include high definition transcranial pink noise stimulation (HD-tPNS) by EOY2027?

Oct 28, 2:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.13%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

Will Alexander Huth (the neuroscientist) serve as an advisor for an AI company like OpenAI OR a neuro X AI company?

Nov 25, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.08%chance

317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

83

60

Will NeuroField Neurotherapy use a kernel flow helmet by EOY2028?

Sep 27, 3:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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