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N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

48426483

OptionProbability

Stage a musical 🐉

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Go on 20 dates 💌

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Make N.C.Y.BOT the most profitable non-house bot on Manifold 🤖

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

30.63%chance

149156663

OptionVotes

YES

1435

722

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.43%chance

447130681

OptionVotes

YES

3258

2837

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.92%chance

318110019

OptionVotes

YES

1160

832

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756948

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

2754817

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

2339329

OptionVotes

YES

43888

3793

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

YES

10081

9577

China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?

Nov 26, 6:05 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

40.88%chance

42403

OptionVotes

YES

12025

8316

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

56.32%chance

51407

OptionVotes

YES

11354

8807

US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

Sep 22, 4:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.53%chance

2170

OptionVotes

YES

5190

5003

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

New News

Prediction markets for New

Prediction markets for New

Prediction markets for New

N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

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