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Prediction markets for New

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.7%chance

452132716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3439

2684

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

322116747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

984

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7757085

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

16

4

0

0

0

0

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3722802

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not before 2030

2026

2025 or earlier

38

27

18

8

7

1

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

1517851

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

54

40

3

3

Who will win the new race to the Moon?

Aug 12, 1:04 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8115039

OptionProbability

USA

China

Russia

India

Europe

Other

56

43

0

0

0

0

New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)

May 25, 10:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

1714465

OptionProbability

National Party

Labour Party

Green Party

ACT New Zealand

Te Pati Maori

New Zealand First Party

Other

64

32

2

1

1

1

0

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

129084

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2030-2031

2028-2029

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

15

10

9

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

3

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.77%chance

256014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5922

4777

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.83%chance

125543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10627

9444

US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

Sep 22, 4:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.53%chance

2170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5190

5003

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