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Prediction markets for New

Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?

Jul 16, 5:26 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

857636299

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Andrew Cuomo

Eric Adams

Brad Lander

Curtis Sliwa

Andrew Yang

Jim Walden

Other

Scott Stringer

Zellnor Myrie

invalid

Jumaane Williams

Jessica Ramos

Letitia James

Michael Blake

Joseph Borelli

John Catsimatidis

Alicia Glen

Christine Quinn

Jessica tisch

Adrienne Adams

Whitney Tilson

82

8

5

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.61%chance

343397576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

1174

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

40.44%chance

145153325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

882

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61%chance

441122128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3697

2549

N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

41119801

OptionProbability

Stage a musical 🐉

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Go on 20 dates 💌

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

Make N.C.Y.BOT the most profitable non-house bot on Manifold 🤖

91

76

70

58

53

52

45

32

19

16

14

6

Who will win the 2025 New York City (NYC) mayoral election?

Oct 13, 11:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

198105119

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Andrew Cuomo

Eric Adams

Curtis Sliwa

Other

Brad Lander

Scott Stringer

Jessica Ramos

Zellnor Myrie

83

10

5

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.11%chance

317104561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

878

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756615

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

73

23

3

0

0

0

0

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

63

36

1

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.56%chance

142752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10667

9057

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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