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Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.94%chance

12429808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2370

674

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.14%chance

5712815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1609

622

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.09%chance

179858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13202

6235

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.81%chance

364979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1814

549

Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?

Sep 20, 2:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.28%chance

354851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

588

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.32%chance

364476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

528

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

592227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

1058

If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Jan 31, 3:47 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

14.39%chance

161498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

807

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

141487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Jan 5, 11:07 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

77.34%chance

251240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

852

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.18%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

877

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

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