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Prediction markets for New AI

Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?

Sep 19, 11:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14839557

OptionProbability

Scott Bessent

No one by end of 2026

David Sacks

Other

Scott Kupor

Michael Kratsios

Jensen Huang

Elon Musk

Sriram Krishnan

Marc Andreessen

Marco Rubio

J.D. Vance

Emil Michael

Peter Thiel

Mark Zuckerberg

Donald Trump

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Leopold Aschenbrenner

Rudy Giuliani

Dean Ball

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Tim Cook

Séb Krier

Keith Rabois

Jacob Helberg

Katherine Boyle

25

22

12

12

9

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

12329807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2372

673

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.17%chance

5916534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2496

401

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.29%chance

149293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12637

6684

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.17%chance

334634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

620

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.29%chance

354375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1309

603

Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?

Sep 20, 2:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.28%chance

343981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

588

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

592227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

1058

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

141487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Jan 5, 11:07 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

77.34%chance

251240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

852

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.18%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

877

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

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