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Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.06%chance

10825367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1279

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36%chance

125493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10577

9472

Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?

Sep 20, 2:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.12%chance

333974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1692

591

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.87%chance

323717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

856

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.09%chance

292954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

685

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.84%chance

572102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

1085

If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Jan 31, 3:47 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

14.39%chance

161498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

807

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Jan 5, 11:07 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

77.34%chance

251240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

852

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

11795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.23%chance

13321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

892

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

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