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New Arab News

    Prediction markets for New Arab

    OptionProbability

    NO

    Other

    YES

    Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

    95

    3

    2

    1

    What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

    Jun 25, 2:29 AMJan 26, 3:27 AM
    816829

    OptionProbability

    A rent freeze in rent-stabilized housing

    Appoint a Mom-and-Pop Czar

    Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

    Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law

    Creating the Department of Community Safety

    Free childcare in NYC

    Raise corporate tax

    Commit 0.5% of NYC's budget to libraries

    Raise income tax

    At least two grocery stores operated by the city government

    Free city buses

    Pass a law for a $30 minimum wage by 2030

    95

    95

    91

    89

    78

    77

    77

    75

    72

    67

    52

    33

    OptionProbability

    Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11

    Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State

    Be a man (cis or trans)

    Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)

    Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature

    Be considered broadly left-wing in their country

    Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent

    Have been married

    Have been in custody

    Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area

    Rule an African country

    Rule a country with same-sex marriage

    Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation

    Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime

    Come to power as the result of a coup

    Be out as LGBTQIA+

    Have used a prediction market

    84

    70

    67

    57

    54

    54

    52

    50

    47

    43

    43

    38

    26

    25

    24

    21

    9

    OptionProbability

    0–1

    2

    3

    4 +

    74

    19

    5

    2

    OptionProbability

    new member joins

    current member leaves

    84

    16

    Will Israel hand over Hamas-free parts of Gaza to Trump's ISF?

    Oct 20, 12:40 AMOct 7, 7:02 PM
    23.99%chance
    6133

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    178

    56

    Kuwait is the first real democracy in the Gulf

    Apr 29, 4:20 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
    37.07%chance
    544

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    116

    70

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