New Deal News

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

66603

OptionVotes

YES

11826

8456

Will Zijin produce 2,000+ tonnes of tungsten in FY2029?

Mar 21, 12:10 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

65.4%chance

74129

OptionVotes

YES

1375

727

US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms

Feb 7, 8:33 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

122419

OptionVotes

YES

1527

655

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

YES

1534

660

[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks

Aug 3, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101779

OptionProbability

Jared Kushner participates in talks

Trump launches new strikes on Iran before any deal is signed

Trump posts calling a deal "the greatest" before it's actually signed

Trump explicitly says he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for it

Trump declares the MOU "over" again before a final deal

Iran charges tolls or fees on Strait of Hormuz shipping

Multinational body created to govern the Strait

Iran agrees to IAEA inspector access to nuclear sites

Formal reconstruction fund for Iran is established

US lifts any sanctions on Iran before 2027

Israel publicly endorses a US-Iran agreement

Iran agrees to zero uranium enrichment

New Iranian Supreme Leader is named before a deal is finalized

Talks actually begin on Monday, August 4

Strait of Hormuz fully reopened to commercial shipping by Oct 1

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

1653

607

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

Jul 15, 11:16 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

10.76%chance

231457

OptionVotes

YES

623

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.65%chance

241455

OptionVotes

YES

1185

903

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

Feb 14, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.69%chance

401299

OptionVotes

YES

995

973

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

131159

OptionVotes

YES

1733

577

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1061

964

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

New Deal News

Prediction markets for New Deal

Prediction markets for New Deal

Prediction markets for New Deal

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

Will Zijin produce 2,000+ tonnes of tungsten in FY2029?

US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

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