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Prediction markets for New Deal

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.28%chance

8334610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2354

425

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJun 15, 6:59 AM

96.06%chance

6911283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6548

216

Will Zijin produce 2,000+ tonnes of tungsten in FY2029?

Mar 21, 12:10 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

54.75%chance

53854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.87%chance

182214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

716

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

Jul 15, 11:16 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

10.17%chance

231447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

633

24

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

Feb 14, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.69%chance

401299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

973

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.52%chance

10472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1442

694

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

7432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

4172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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