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Prediction markets for New Deal

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

1110385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3416

72

Will Zijin produce 2,000+ tonnes of tungsten in FY2029?

Mar 21, 12:10 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

55.64%chance

63874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

893

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

40.06%chance

42342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12232

8175

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

Jul 15, 11:16 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

10.76%chance

231457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

623

26

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

Feb 14, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.69%chance

401299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

973

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

39.7%chance

12643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

811

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.66%chance

12591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1516

660

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

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