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Prediction markets for New Deal

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

26.97%chance

3413742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJun 15, 6:59 AM

95.01%chance

6910593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5858

248

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

Jul 15, 11:16 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

9.67%chance

221446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

642

23

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

Feb 14, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.69%chance

401299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

973

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

5308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.65%chance

4119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

978

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.89%chance

2103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

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