New Deal News

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

53.7%chance

644087

OptionVotes

YES

1680

1168

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.23%chance

252768

OptionVotes

YES

2511

613

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with giant film production studios [read description]

Mar 12, 1:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

201482

OptionVotes

YES

1417

901

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

Feb 14, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.69%chance

401299

OptionVotes

YES

995

973

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

221255

OptionVotes

YES

1157

913

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

Jul 15, 11:16 AMDec 31, 6:59 PM

40.11%chance

191229

OptionVotes

YES

404

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

YES

2198

1820

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1061

964

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

May 6, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:09 PM

5275

OptionProbability

New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)

Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)

Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo

New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

Other

New US-Iran Nuclear Deal this year?

Jun 18, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.54%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

197

Trump administration signs major new trade deal by August 27, 2025?

May 30, 12:15 AMAug 26, 11:59 PM

82.54%chance

9170

OptionVotes

YES

217

New Deal News

Prediction markets for New Deal

Prediction markets for New Deal

Prediction markets for New Deal

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with giant film production studios [read description]

Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053?

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

New US-Iran Nuclear Deal this year?

Trump administration signs major new trade deal by August 27, 2025?

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