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Prediction markets for New Foundations

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.94%chance

12429808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2370

674

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.03%chance

9112035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2562

536

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.81%chance

364979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1814

549

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

251885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

722

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

Sep 3, 1:24 AMSep 3, 1:20 AM

15.42%chance

51663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2342

427

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will Pearl's causality have important implications for fundamental physics?

Dec 1, 3:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.18%chance

25838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

910

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

39.03%chance

15395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

946

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

48

41

6

4

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.53%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

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