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Prediction markets for NEW HERE SHORTS

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

54.77%chance

123216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2055

1953

When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?

Nov 22, 7:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

132249

OptionProbability

2026

2025

Other

2027

2023

2024

42

26

18

8

3

3

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Sep 2, 7:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.94%chance

31928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

971

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will significant prosecutorial reform be enacted in South Korea by 2028?

Dec 13, 12:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.24%chance

3390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

100

New top level domain which shortens "x.com" before EOY 2029

Sep 25, 11:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.24%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

70

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