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Prediction markets for New World Order

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

823

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

60.58%chance

242872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

807

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

Dec 13, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

352125

OptionProbability

Will not cause extinction

Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World

Will cause extinction, Terminator

Will cause extinction, Economic Competition

Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure

Will cause extinction, foom

Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement

Will cause extinction, AI Race

Other

Will cause extinction, Other

76

5

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

0

If AI causes human extinction before 2100, how will it happen

Dec 29, 1:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23894

OptionProbability

Will cause extinction, foom

Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure

Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World

Other

Will cause extinction, Economic Competition

Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement

Will cause extinction, AI Race

Will cause extinction, Terminator

48

22

15

8

2

2

1

1

Before 2030, will we learn that a major discovery in physics had been made before 2023, but intentionally kept secret?

Nov 18, 11:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7%chance

11565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

916

Will there be a new "embarrassing truth" that emerges that governments refuse to acknowledge?

May 1, 12:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

91.78%chance

3150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

56

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

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