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New Year News

N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

48426483

OptionProbability

Stage a musical 🐉

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Go on 20 dates 💌

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Make N.C.Y.BOT the most profitable non-house bot on Manifold 🤖

87

73

38

35

23

21

18

15

8

5

2

1

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

19.75%chance

24148656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2318

1569

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

New Pandemic This Year?

Jan 8, 11:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.51%chance

335888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMFeb 19, 10:59 PM

48.44%chance

422387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

309

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.8%chance

572101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

1086

Will my blog succeed in its inelegant New Year's resolution for 2025?

Jan 4, 12:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

20.19%chance

52100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1988

503

Will ivermectin be proven to be a superconducter by new years 2026

Aug 29, 9:18 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1.36%chance

141729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

946

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?

Jul 1, 11:35 AMJul 8, 8:59 PM

75.49%chance

181057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

63.83%chance

23505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

940

Will New Zealand politics be significantly radicalised in 5 years?

Sep 11, 4:53 PMSep 11, 4:51 PM

40.51%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

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