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Prediction markets for New Year

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

24148706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

1619

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

1317379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

901

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMFeb 19, 10:59 PM

95.06%chance

558239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3446

709

If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?

Oct 23, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

3.01%chance

244870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3820

782

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.84%chance

572102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

1085

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.13%chance

181543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

866

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?

Apr 8, 2:39 AMApr 8, 4:59 AM

4.69%chance

201080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

916

Will a new class of high-temperature superconductors be discovered within the next five years?

Aug 21, 9:26 PMAug 29, 3:59 AM

10%chance

11758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

937

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

51.97%chance

24705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

803

Will New Zealand politics be significantly radicalised in 5 years?

Sep 11, 4:53 PMSep 11, 4:51 PM

40.51%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

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