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Prediction markets for New Year

N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

3890804

OptionProbability

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Stage a musical 🐉

Go on 20 dates 💌

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

Make N.C.Y.BOT the most profitable non-house bot on Manifold 🤖

78

64

63

54

53

45

35

30

20

20

14

9

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

24048106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

1731

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

New Pandemic This Year?

Jan 8, 11:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.27%chance

294384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.01%chance

562081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

1104

Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMFeb 19, 10:59 PM

80.57%chance

402050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

965

Will ivermectin be proven to be a superconducter by new years 2026

Aug 29, 9:18 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1.36%chance

141729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

946

Will my new romantic relationship last at least a year?

May 27, 9:58 PMMay 31, 9:57 PM

64.05%chance

191476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

749

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?

Jul 1, 11:35 AMJul 8, 8:59 PM

75.49%chance

181057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

63.83%chance

23505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

940

Will my blog succeed in its inelegant New Year's resolution for 2025?

Jan 4, 12:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

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