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Prediction markets for News Conference

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

End of war Israel-Palestine before 2026

Jul 29, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.35%chance

416126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

822

Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Nov 14, 12:17 AMJan 3, 4:59 PM

90.34%chance

134078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3058

327

Will there be a schism in the US Catholic Church prior to end of 2025?

Dec 18, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.41%chance

201717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2002

822

Will any European country formally recognize a Palestinian state between June and December 2025?

Jun 6, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.74%chance

161605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

544

18

Trump mentions Riemann hypothesis during 2nd term how many times?

Jun 9, 10:59 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

81092

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

57

39

30

What Team will win the 2025 SEC Football Championship Game (December 6th)

Jul 21, 10:07 PMDec 6, 11:59 PM

4222

OptionProbability

Texas Longhorns

Georgia Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide

LSU Tigers

Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners

Texas A&M Aggies

Arkansas Razorbacks

Auburn Tigers

Florida Gators

Kentucky Wildcats

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Missouri Tigers

South Carolina Gamecocks

Tennessee Volunteers

Vanderbilt Commodores

22

20

17

13

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Lebron James own part of an NBA team by 2030?

Jul 13, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.59%chance

6143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

59

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be allowed to overstay his Visa?

Mar 18, 5:46 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

81.11%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

48

Will Brent Venables still be head coach of Oklahoma college football by the end of the 2025-26 season?

May 22, 11:28 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

51.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

976

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