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Prediction markets for Next

Next US government shutdown (with furlough)

Jul 6, 12:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

377274599

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2030s

2028

2029

2024

Not before 2050

2023

2040s

46

23

19

5

3

2

1

1

0

0

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

69%chance

159139989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1698

1437

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69101750

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Other

Christine Pelosi

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

64

20

14

1

1

1

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

27.65%chance

9884902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1618

618

Who will be the next pope after Leo XIV?

May 6, 3:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12876192

OptionProbability

Other

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Luis Antonio Tagle

Lazarus You Heung-sik

Pietro Parolin

José Tolentino de Mendonça

No one

Giorgio Marengo

Robert Prevost

Francis Leo

Paulo Cezar Costa

Américo Aguiar

Donald Trump

François-Xavier Bustillo

88

5

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will $Kendu reach 100B MC in next bull run?

Sep 13, 10:15 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6.45%chance

2249681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33710

1489

Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year?

Jan 21, 3:23 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

15.71%chance

2948660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19025

6471

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

6027544

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Other

Pierre Poilievre

Doug Ford

Justin Trudeau

42

40

13

4

0

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.41%chance

3311183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8133

1545

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Jul 4, 12:46 AMJul 11, 8:59 PM

398565

OptionProbability

Katie Porter

Other

Betty Yee

Eleni Kounalakis

Toni Atkins

Rick Caruso

Antonio Villaraigosa

Rob Bonta

Kamala Harris

Tony Thurmond

Xavier Becerra

Jesse Perez

Michael L. Younger

19

19

13

10

10

8

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

163999

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

54

44

1

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

502545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

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