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Prediction markets for No Contract Required

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2026?

Apr 21, 7:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.93%chance

235710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

906

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.39%chance

265299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2543

393

Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?

Jan 22, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.7%chance

143139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

936

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

83%chance

51355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

47

Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?

Mar 25, 8:19 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

63.56%chance

20906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

168

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

Will any US state enact and use a general wage board by 2030?

Feb 10, 6:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.66%chance

4201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

88

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

May 15, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.62%chance

5146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

47

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.19%chance

599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Sean catches a disease on his honeymoon to Vietnam

Jan 23, 5:01 PMMay 29, 4:00 PM

487

OptionProbability

Yes

No

56

44

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