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Prediction markets for No Guidance

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.91%chance

176211240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

3435

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

19838043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

817

Will DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMDec 31, 1:41 AM

33.76%chance

11715946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will a deepfake impersonating a White House official lead to a military incident involving US troops by October 7, 2025?

Apr 10, 11:14 AMOct 7, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

309991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2728

222

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.13%chance

795708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

1369

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Apr 18, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87.71%chance

404067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

876

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

Will the Governing Body issue new guidance by January 1, 2026 allowing the celebration of Father’s Day or Mother’s Day?

Jul 13, 6:55 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.65%chance

7447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Which vaccines will RFK end recommendations for?

Apr 19, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

COVID-19

Measles Mumps and Rubella

HPV

Influenza

Hepatitis B

Polio

86

78

71

68

59

51

Friendly match between Russia and Argentina by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.51%chance

785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

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