No Kings News

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Other

Sam Altman

Ilya Sutskever

Robert Caro

Donald Trump

Gwern Branwen

Benjamin Netanyahu

JD Vance

Jensen Huang

Kamala Harris

Buffett

Joe Biden

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

pope Francis

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sarah Paine

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Taylor Swift

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

roon

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Tim Cook

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

Hollow Knight Silk song released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Biden gets hospitalised

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Early general elections in Pakistan

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Dodgers win World Series

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

A country leaves NATO

Phillies win the World Series

Harry and Meghan divorce

2025 hotter then 2024

Putin dies

Biden dies

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Congress repeals any tariff

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

Chuck Schumer resigns

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

Ukraine internal coup attempt

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

Putin assassinated

NATO at war with Russia

Trump assassinated

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

US-China war

A country leaves the EU

A nuclear bomb explodes

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Bake it with your best friend.

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Increase water by 50 g

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Improve the bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

it needs more salt

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Half yeast

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Bake one more minute

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Bake vodka into it

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Replace flour with flowers

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Make the bread great again

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Play classical music while baking

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Bake your social security number into it.

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google

Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google

the end of 2024

Ides of March 2025

Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered

Bitcoin reaches 100k usd

Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)

Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece

Pluton revealed or used or production started

chat gpt 5 releases

Imu Face Reveal

the end of 2025

Gta 6 comes out

manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

kaidou is seen again in the manga

Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

Taylor Swift married

arlong is seen again in the manga

King Charles no longer king of UK

OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained

Noam chomsky passes away

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

ChatGPT 6 released

UFC 350 takes place

Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums

Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop

ukraine joins NATO

nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)

dragon ball super manga ends

Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200

Sanji finds all blue

ukraine joins EU

manifold reaches 3000 engaged users

human sets foot on moon again

one of the straw hats dies

Pigs Fly

donald trump spends a day in prison

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

hunter biden serves a day in jail

Destiny retires from streaming

6th bitcoin halving

Windows 12 end of life date

someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold

Buggy the clown dies

Singularity happens

Kirby

Pit

Captain Falcon

Donkey Kong

Lucina

Toon Link

Luigi

Jigglypuff

Mario

Link

Samus

Pikachu

Ness

Peach

Bowser

Ice Climbers

Sheik

Zelda

Dr. Mario

Pichu

Falco

Marth

Ganondorf

Roy

Meta Knight

Zero Suit Samus

Wario

Sonic

King Dedede

R.O.B

Wolf

Villager

Shulk

Bowser Jr.

Duck Hunt

Ryu

Cloud

Simon Belmont

King K. Rool

Steve

Other

Yoshi

Fox

Young Link

Mewtwo

Mr. Game & Watch

Snake

Ike

PKMN Trainer

Diddy Kong

Lucas

Olimar

Lucario

Mega Man

Wii Fit Trainer

Rosalina & Luma

Little Mac

Greninja

Mii Fighter

Palutena

Pac-Man

Robin

Corrin

Bayonetta

Inkling

Ridley

Richter

Isabelle

Incineroar

Piranha Plant

Joker

Hero

Banjo-Kazooie

Terry Bogard

Jim Chalmers

Tanya Plibersek

Andrew Charlton

Andrew Hastie

Chris Bowen

Patrick Gorman

Sussan Ley

Angus Taylor

Amanda Rishworth

Matt Thistlethwaite

Catherine King

Julie Collins

James Paterson

Paul Fletcher

Dan Tehan

Angie Bell

Michelle Rowland

Josh Frydenberg

Phillip Thompson

Clare O'Neil

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price

Linda Burney

Elizabeth Watson-Brown

Stephen Bates

Andrew Leigh

Richard Marles

Mark Dreyfus

Jason Clare

Penny Wong

Ed Husic

James McGrath

Tony Burke

Anika Wells

Andrew Giles

Michael Sukkar

Robbie Katter

Clive Palmer

Bill Shorten

Adam Bandt

Peter Dutton

Barnaby Joyce

R+L=J

Mad Queen Dany

Shireen burnination

Nightlamp

King Bran

Jojen-paste

The Pink Letter not by Ramsey

Lemongate

Somebody is Euron

Aegon is a Blackfyre

Dany will burn the house with the Red Door

Time-traveling Bran

Arya kills Lady Stoneheart

Marwyn is Maegor Brightflame

Gerion Lannister is the Shrouded Lord

Bolt-On

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

The United Kingdom holds a general election

Joe Biden dies

A Manifold market with more than 5 million mana in volume gets misresolved

@strutheo starts making fewer markets (4 or fewer markets created in any 3-month period)

King Charles III abdicates the throne

New pope after Leo XIV

A mod resolves any option on this market

A manned mission lands on Mars

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

Great Gatsby

Death Stranding 2 out

Taylor Swift married

Trump announces VP running mate

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

King Charles no longer king of UK

assange extradited to usa

elden ring dlc releases

halloween 2024

Destiny surpasses Hasan's sub count on YouTube

Any Russian bank reconnected to SWIFT

Ethereum reaches $10K USD

hollow knight silksong release date known

hollow knight silksong released

festivus 2025

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

GTA 6 released

Windows 12 released

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

luffy finds the one piece in the manga

Sam Altman leaves openai

Next Dune film releases (3rd one)

lego releases a new bionicle

US presidential inauguration of a Democrat

6th bitcoin halving

Yuri Andrukhovych / Set Change

Elif Batuman / The Possessed

Mei-mei Berssenbrugge / A Treatise on Stars

Robert Olen Butler / Had a Good Time

Safia Elhillo / The January Children

Mathias Énard / Tell Them of Battles, Kings, and Elephants

Ibrahim Nasrallah / Time of White Horses

Yoko Tawada / The Emissary