OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
A major war in Asia occurs
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
"The New Norm" ends
New James Bond actor is presented
Fair elections in 2028
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Approval < 35%
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
A new supreme court justice appointed
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Vances have another kid
USA experiences a recession.
US Invasion of any North/South American country
trump gets hospitalized
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
N/A this please, pressed by mistake
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Dow rises above 65,000
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Trump says a racial slur
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Trump and Obama shake hands
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)
Trump visits Africa
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
US national bitcoin reserve created
Tesla
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Joe Biden dies
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
10% fewer government agencies
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
New national park created
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Constitutional Amendment
NATO invokes Article 5
Another pandemic
The department of education gets desolved
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Repeal obamacare
JD Vance elected President
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Trump announces he is tired of winning
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
American Manned Lunar Landing
Trump gets covid (again)
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Trump gets shot
Approval < 25%
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
War is declared against another nation
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Trump dies
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Trump runs for a third term
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
55 or more Republican senate seats
Record level unemployment
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
south park is canceled/discontinued
Starship lands on Mars
54 or more Republican senate seats
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump is assassinated
Cannabis is federally legalized
Trump and Melania divorce
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
"covfefe" posted again
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A national ban on gender-affirming care
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Constitutional Amendment
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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0
0
0
OptionProbability
Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours
Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days
Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days
Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck
The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days
>= 10 American soldiers are killed
>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed
A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days
Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days
Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days
Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel
Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
Strike on a nuclear power plant causes a radiation incident
>= 50 American soldiers are killed
Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader
Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
Any ground raid to seize enriched uranium stockpile
>= 50 Israeli soldiers are killed
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
100+ civilian deaths in Israel
Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours
Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days
Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
US ground forces land on Kharg Island by April 15
Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial tanker traffic by April 30
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9
8
8
8
6
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gene Editing Therapies
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
Human-level AGI
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Space-Based Manufacturing
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Seafloor Mining Robots
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Quantum Computing Applications
Lunar Bases
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
Graphene semiconductor electronics
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
Moon base
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
Photonic computing
Commercial asteroid mining
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Datacenters in space
Joywire
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Nuclear powered cargo ships
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Fast travel across the globe
Commercial fusion power
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Mars Base
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Changing the height of an adult at will
Von Neumann Probe
Orbital Habitats
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Fusion Drives
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Human Mind Uploading
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human sex change at chromosome level
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Changing a person's race at will
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Commercial cold fusion
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Antimatter bombs
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Time travel to the past
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
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OptionProbability
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025
Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027
Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026
Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028
Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025
In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025
Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026
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27
25
20
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028
Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028
Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
5066
344
OptionProbability
Same-gender romantic relationships are possible (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact relationships)
Miis can have children regardless of gender (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact having children)
Miis can have pets (more detailed implementation than just gifts like in TL)
House location on map can be customized
Will be released before 2027 (AoE)
Base digital game costs US$60 or less
No region-locked food items
Island can be terraformed (predefined expansions don't count, must be able to manually customize land placement or shape)
Updated to support the Switch 2 mouse mode in any capacity before 2027-06-01
Nintendo Switch 2 edition released before 2027 (AoE)
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream appears in the first *general* Nintendo DIrect of 2026
Homes can be customized with individual furniture pieces
Players can visit other players' islands online or via local wireless
Music/song creation mode returns (like the Concert Hall)
Miis can have jobs/careers (more detailed implementation than just seeing them working at various places like in TL)
Gender is removed (e.g. consistently referred to as "style")
Miitopia-like makeup system
Romantic relationships are absent or not distinguished from friendships (one example: like the Miitopia systems)
Babies can be nonbinary at birth
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16
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OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
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0
OptionProbability
safely returns to Earth
Will attempt to say something momentous
Had been into space as of 2023
Right handed
Is a pilot (but not necessarily for the mission)
Have child/ren
military or ex military background
Isn't white
Chinese Citizen
Is the mission commander
Have a PhD
Male
Will step out with their right foot first
Have 2+ bachelors degrees
video recording is available of them falling over on the lunar surface (within 1 year of moonwalk)
Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered not to have been momentous 12 months after landing
Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered so 12 months after landing
Will be recorded (e.g. interview, podcast transcript) dissing moon landing hoaxers, either before or within 12 months of moonwalk
Will have a nickname that doesn't directly derive from their real name (eg Buzz)
Is 68 inches or taller
is 50 years old or older (at time of moonwalk)
Born in a state that majority voted for Trump in 2024 election
Films a tiktok (or similar short format film) on the lunar surface featuring at least some dancing (inside the lander counts) (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)
American citizen
First moon-words will be a joke (e.g. "oh, did I leave the oven on?" or "hey i can see my house from up here!" or even "oh wow there's an alien life form waving at me!")
No tertiary qualification (honorary degrees don't count)
Will not be a single person; two or more people will take the first step (almost) simultaneously
Christian
Expressed doubt on whether the Apollo landings happened (digging up an embarrassing tweet from when they were 13 counts)
bald
has some kind of neural implant
is 30 years old or younger (at time of moonwalk)
Will be recorded attempting a backflip on the lunar surface (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)
Ginger
Is transgender
94
88
82
79
76
72
72
67
66
66
57
50
50
46
45
40
39
39
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
27
25
25
20
16
15
12
10
9
1
OptionProbability
secret cabal of pedophiles in high places
The UK did Nordstream
JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.
Emperor Nero didn't kill himself
Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked
massive mail ballot fraud in 2020
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
US government found intelligent extraterrestrials
Trump is a Russian agent
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Chemtrails
The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself
Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked
Jimmy Hoffa was whacked
Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird
The Holocaust was largely exaggerated
The moon landing was faked
30
21
11
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
2
1
OptionProbability
Land
Odyssey
Smash
Universe
World
Adventure
Dimension
Realm
Kingdom
Voyage
Stellar
Cosmic
Galactic
Infinity
Rescue
Revenge
Multiverse
Race
Brawl
31
17
17
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
13
13
13
11
11
11
9
9
9
OptionProbability
Pez Dispenser
Tanker
Human Landing System (HLS)
Propellant Depot
Chomper
Mars Cargo
Other
Mars Crew
100
89
76
66
50
50
50
46
