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Prediction markets for No Way Home

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.4%chance

423903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

833

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

19.01%chance

273144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2064

485

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will Google still feature the I'm Feeling Lucky button in some way on their Homepage when Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?

Apr 13, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.07%chance

17835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

893

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.36%chance

7796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

583

Will I become a Senate Page? (please predict)

Dec 7, 5:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.85%chance

3555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

931

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

647

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?

Jan 15, 7:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

47.67%chance

2152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

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