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Prediction markets for No Way Home

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

444403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

843

When will Pokémon Bank shut down?

Nov 10, 8:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124114

OptionProbability

Before 1st January 2028

Before 1st January 2029

Before 1st January 2030

Before 1st January 2027

Before 1st January 2025

Before 1st January 2026

98

98

98

3

0

0

Will Google still feature the I'm Feeling Lucky button in some way on their Homepage when Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?

Apr 13, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.09%chance

203049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3575

689

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

742947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

956

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

89%chance

61849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2844

352

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?

Jan 15, 7:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

50.57%chance

4232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

989

Will a 30-year fixed rate mortgage be cheaper than an adjustable rate mortgage for me?

Sep 17, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.94%chance

429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

142

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