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Prediction markets for No Way Home

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Will Google still feature the I'm Feeling Lucky button in some way on their Homepage when Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?

Apr 13, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.64%chance

18885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

884

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

647

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?

Jan 15, 7:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

47.67%chance

2152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Sega Stock

Apr 12, 1:11 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

15

OptionProbability

NO

YES

75

65

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