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Prediction markets for No Way Home

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

I film all of 2025* at 4k

Jan 15, 5:10 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

25.74%chance

394896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

589

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.4%chance

423903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

833

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1737

971

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

When will Pokémon Bank shut down?

Nov 10, 8:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51345

OptionProbability

Before 1st January 2030

Before 1st January 2029

Before 1st January 2028

Before 1st January 2027

Before 1st January 2026

Before 1st January 2025

75

71

55

50

20

0

Will Google still feature the I'm Feeling Lucky button in some way on their Homepage when Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?

Apr 13, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.07%chance

17835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1361

893

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

647

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?

Jan 15, 7:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

47.67%chance

2152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Will Billie Eilish release a song without Finneas’ production by the end of 2025?

Sep 27, 1:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.09%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

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