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Prediction markets for No
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
68.86%chance
328673400
OptionVotes
2756
2354
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.41%chance
198384813
OptionVotes
155442
22908
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
75%chance
27396094
OptionVotes
3693
1329
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
39%chance
24481755
OptionVotes
2442
1381
OptionVotes
3716
943
By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.78%chance
19278703
OptionVotes
3186
1087
Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)
Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.91%chance
12237892
OptionVotes
2306
1876
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.74%chance
4615921
OptionVotes
15753
6501
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
55%chance
488666
OptionVotes
1225
754
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
Apr 9, 5:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
85%chance
696372
OptionVotes
1925
718
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13%chance
275029
OptionVotes
2499
478
this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours
Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM
48%chance
19272
OptionVotes
104
96