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Top stories

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for No

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65%chance

26992949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2879

1674

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

15979273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38%chance

24078052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2414

1425

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

18377199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2274

1635

Jensen Huang (YES) vs Pope Leo (NO): Time POTY 2025

Nov 30, 4:22 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.02%chance

10749538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

1014

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.9%chance

12137711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2242

1989

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Apr 9, 5:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.53%chance

11023460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

939

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 72 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

49.78%chance

15223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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