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Top stories

Bangladesh Warns It Can No Longer Sustain 1.3 Million Rohingya Refugees

Bangladesh Warns It Can No Longer Sustain 1.3 Million Rohingya Refugees

Authors

12

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Nobel Peace

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

66260292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300070

33326

Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)

Aug 16, 3:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

95.11%chance

291156992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4411

227

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.65%chance

11085214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4156

767

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Jan 29, 6:49 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

3.45%chance

5640914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5294

189

Nobel Peace Prize insider charged in 2025?

Oct 10, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.04%chance

2510334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9756

103

Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?

Oct 9, 1:14 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

9.61%chance

226038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3067

326

Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?

Oct 11, 5:11 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

384973

OptionProbability

No peace, no Nobel

Peace but no Nobel

Peace and Nobel

No peace, Nobel anyway

55

35

8

3

Trump retaliates against Norway if denied Nobel Peace Prize?

Sep 27, 8:00 AMDec 31, 8:49 AM

3.26%chance

414366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2853

387

Will Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?

Oct 30, 5:33 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM

11.86%chance

253119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

908

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Nobel peace prize before 2100?

May 7, 8:19 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

9.74%chance

372718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

838

Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Sep 17, 6:27 PMMar 24, 3:59 AM

3.5%chance

302528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

902

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

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