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Prediction markets for Nobel Prize

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

4.93%chance

339944729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439547

22781

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9%chance

11892949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4914

680

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

11724061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1654

933

Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

May 30, 6:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

9%chance

6216898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

945

450

Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

Jan 26, 12:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28%chance

11212163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1678

1533

Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?

Dec 12, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.44%chance

403995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

477

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

46.98%chance

331926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

691

Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100?

Dec 22, 7:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.77%chance

331303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

928

788

Will the "Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2026" market ever reach 10% again?

Jan 20, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.15%chance

81011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

1772

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

24662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

737

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

27.02%chance

19414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

941

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